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Sci4Teens Contest Grand Prize Winner: Kristoff John F. Padilla


Turbulent Typhoons to Arid Droughts: How Climate Change Precipitates Severe Weather Disruptions

Abstract


Distortions of weather patterns have become rampant due to the rising prevalence of global warming and climate change. Rainstorms, droughts, and other phenomena are currently escalating in intensity, catalyzed by the 1°C rise in the Earth’s average surface temperature. Compared to pre-industrial levels, emissions of heat-trapping gases, scientifically known as greenhouse gases, have also surged due to the rise of industries and the widening scope of agriculture and energy production. Extreme weather events caused by this change in climate conditions have drastically impacted human health, compromising the availability of clean air, potable water, and sufficient nutritious food. With the release of the Sixth IPCC Assessment Report projecting even higher temperatures and sea levels, the call for reducing emissions and implementing greener policies remains crucial for environmental sustainability.



The rainiest and driest seasons the planet has ever seen





Fig. 1. Typhoon Goni in October 2020 Fig. 2. El Colorado Ski Resort in winter of 2021


In November 2020, the Philippines experienced one of the strongest tropical cyclones on record. With destructive winds reaching speeds of up to 280 kilometers an hour (Samenow), Typhoon Goni (see fig. 1) affected approximately 70 million Filipino individuals, including about 700,000 children (Piojo).


Near the opposite part of the globe in Chile, lack of rainfall has led to the arid bareness of the typically snow-clad Andes mountains (see fig. 2). In contrast to the catastrophic stormy seasons experienced in the Philippines, the South American country is currently undergoing one of its driest periods in history, tallying a record low of only 78 millimeters of rain this year (Medel).


What is causing these drastic changes in meteorological patterns? Weather phenomena have intensified due to man-made activities and industrial processes accelerating global warming and climate change.



A glimpse into the Earth’s “pre-industrial” climate


Scientists differ on which historical era defines a “pre-industrial” period when it comes to climate levels. One commonly used reference point constitutes the years 1850 to 1900. During this time frame, industrialization, the wide-scale development of industries, was still on its path towards becoming one of the significant drivers of climate change.

Pre-industrial levels estimate carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere to be about 280 to 290 ppm (parts per million). Moreover, the Earth’s mean surface temperature from 1850 to 1890 was roughly 13.6°C (Weart).


However, CO2 levels have significantly increased at present, reaching a peak of 419 ppm in May 2021 (Sullivan), while the average global temperature has risen by about a degree Celsius since pre-industrial times . This value is only projected to surge further to approximately 1.5-degree warming in the future (Grose et al.).



Man-made factors leading to global warming and climate change





Fig. 3. Chart indicating the percentage of greenhouse gas emissions released by key sectors


Different economic branches influence the rise in Earth’s temperature and the aggravation of natural disasters, as seen in fig. 3. Energy production, land use, and industry contribute approximately 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions, with power plants taking up the top for highest emissions. In the United States alone, about 1.527 billion metric tons of CO2

emissions resulted from burning coal, natural gas, and petroleum in 2019 (“FAQs - U.S. EIA”). Wastes generated by agriculture and the chemical and metallurgical industries also release major greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide and methane (“Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data”).


The other 30% of total emissions come from transportation, infrastructure, and other energy sources. Greenhouse gases are released when energy is consumed by vehicles and buildings, which have become increasingly vital to the dynamic of society today.



The harsh consequences on human health and livelihood


The expansion of industry accompanies adverse effects for the state of society and the economy. Excessive greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, leads to more heat confined within the atmosphere. The resulting temperature change can be dangerous, especially for individuals with weaker cardiovascular systems. An intense European heatwave in 2003, for example, led to 70,000 recorded deaths (“Climate Change and Health”).

Climate change also impacts the security of air, food, and water. First, heightened atmospheric pollution triggers asthma and allergies in affected individuals. Intense rainstorms and droughts also lessen farmers’ yield and limit the distribution of essential crops, damaging both livelihood and human nutrition (“Climate Impacts on Human Health”). Finally, warmer conditions lead to higher exposure to contaminants like pathogens and toxins in water that enhance the risk of waterborne illnesses such as diarrhea and liver disease (Crimmins et al.).



Conclusion: The new IPCC report and what it means for humanity


Climate change is a pressing issue, and the recently released Sixth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reflects this reality. The document foresees warmer temperatures, rising sea levels, and more extreme precipitation events in various areas of the world (“Q&A: IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report”). The future, however, is not entirely bleak. “Net-zero carbon emissions,” which refers to balancing the production of greenhouse gases with their reduction or eliminating emissions altogether (“What is Carbon Neutrality”), has proven to be an effective solution in stabilizing Earth’s temperatures. Thus, environmental policies and agreements must continue pushing for the removal of carbon pollution from the atmosphere to regain stable weather conditions and secure a sustainable future for the planet.



References:


“Climate Change and Health.” World Health Organization, World Health Organization, 1 Feb. 2019, www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health. Accessed August 28, 2021.


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Crimmins, Allison, et al. “The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment.” The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment. Crimmins, 2016, doi:10.7930/j0r49nqx. Accessed August 28, 2021.


“Frequently Asked Questions (Faqs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).” Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S.Energy Information Administration (EIA), EIA, 15 Dec. 2020, www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=74&t=11. Accessed August 28, 2021.


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The El Colorado ski resort with mostly melted snow, in the middle of its 2021 winter season, in Santiago, Chile. CNN,

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Typhoon Goni on October 30, 2020. 2020. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Wikimedia Commons.

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